Warning: This post contains spoilers for the first novel of A Game of Thrones.
This post continues my series of hilariously inaccurate "predictions" of what's "going to" happen in what is to me the "upcoming" sequels in A Song of Ice and Fire series by George R. R. Martin.
Assessment of Prior Predictions
The only one of my predictions that has been jossed is the idea that Daenarys's baby would be around to cause trouble (even though that prediction was tangential to the main one that Arya would vanquish Dany, not to mention obvious since an oracle prophesied that very thing). Since the baby died, that is not going to be true. However, it could still be true metaphorically (or even metaphysically). The maegi, Mirri Maz Duur, said that one life pays for another. The life of Dany's baby was used to pay for the life of Khal Drogo. Then, the lives of Khal Drogo, a stallion, and Mirri Maz Duur, were used to pay for the lives of the dragons. The way I see it, the prophesy might have applied to those dragons all along.
In any case, thanks to the dragons, I now doubt that Dany and Arya will face in combat as I predicted. Daenerys clearly leans more toward commanding than fighting herself.
The first novel ends with people talking about brokering a peace that would involve at least an independent North Kingdom, and perhaps a complete dissolution back to Seven Kingdoms.
- I predict it does happen that way: the Lannisters make peace with the Starks and Tullys. Terms being that 1. Kingdom of the North becomes independent, the Lannisters renounce all claims to the territory, 2. all traitors are pardonned, 3. prisoners are exchanged (Jaime et al. for Sansa et al.), and 4. Sansa's engagement to Joffrey is broken.
- Once this peace is brokered, Renly Baratheon realizes that (again) he won't have Northern assistance to depose the Lannisters. He backs off plans to advance on King's Landing but claims kingship of the Baratheon lands (in spite of Joffrey) and declares independence.
- However, I was a little confused: in a couple places it sounded as if Renly had actually took King's Landing in a few places and depoesd Joffrey. I kind of doubt it because the plans to send Tyrion to King's Landing to serve as regent wouldn't have made sense.
- Several other domains declare their independence as well, and we end up with (what else?) Seven Kingdoms. The Lannisters are in a somewhat weak position miltarily and too afraid of Renly and Stanis Bartheon to devote much effort to oppose this, and so only keep King's Landing and their ancestral Castle Rock.
- Because of the peace, the second novel will probably flash forward a few years in time.
The narrative left it a little unclear what happened to Arya. She was captured by Yoren, and Yoren handed her back her sword Needle and said to her, "Hope you can use that boy". I took it to mean that Yoren was conscripting her to the Night's Watch, and this is what I predict will happen: she'll try to keep her sex secret.
However, several times later in the novel Catelyn Stark spoke as if the Lannister held both her daughters, even though when she met up with Robb they expressed doubt that the Lannisters had Arya. In which case Arya would have been exchanged along with Sansa. But I think the evidence points more strongly to Night's Watch conscription.
Stannis versus Renly will become a thing. They appear to be two highly competent people (unlike Robert) with diametrically opposite political beliefs, both claiming not only the Baratheon lordship but also the Iron Throne.
I feel like in the second novel Daenerys will spend her time consolidating the Dothraki sea and other eastern lands, and will not yet trouble Westeros. Likewise, the Others and other people north of the Wall are biding their time.
Winter hasn't come yet by the time the action in the second novel starts, even though it's years later. Or maybe a short one (two years or so) comes and goes.
Also probably not by the second novel, but at some point Bran will take Osha's warnings about the North seriously and save the day.
I wrote last time that I had started to pull for the Lannisters because everyone else was being retarded. I also wrote that I felt like the Lannisters were the least interesting clan because they were straightforward stereotypes of an evil family. Cersei, Jaime, Tywin, and Cersei's two youngest children all fit pretty well. But these families tend to have a few members that seem to break the mold (although that is part of the stereotype). One is the smart, not-wholly-evil one who nevertheless throws his weight behind the family even though he is cynical about them. That's Tyrion. Another one is the completely stupid one who is evil for fun of it. That's Joffrey. (Taking a page from D&D, we might say that an evil family is mostly Neutral Evil, but there are often a Lawful Evil and a Chaotic Evil member in the midst.)
Well, the point of this is, Joffrey is really thowing a kink into Lannister leadership, and I can't really pull for them as long as he is King. I belive that Cersei genuinely wanted to cultivate connections with Sansa and was willing for her sake, and because it was more useful, to let Ned take the Night's Watch, but Joffrey just wanted to be evil, and it really cost the Lannisters a lot of negotiating leverage. Cersei or Jaime Lannister on the throne would have been a good choice (but they can't because, unlike Joffrey, they were not "heirs" which means they'd be usurpers), or one of the younger children who are easier to control.
The Starks, as bad as they are at court intrigue, at least are good in battle.