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Game of Thrones "Predictions" #8

Ok, so A Feast for Crows ends and it reveals that it and the next novel are divided spatially rather than chronologically. Fair enough.

As Martin started wrapping up the threads it got marginally more interesting. For the first time a character who I was pulling for and who had significant converage was snuffed out (or so it seems; more on that below). This was something I was expecting to happen once or twice per novel, based on the reputation of series, but this is the first time it happened with me. Since I thought Ned, Catelyn, and Robb were all stupid, I wasn't really too attached to them. We had a scare with Bran but I wasn't a fan of him either. Renly's death was disappointing but since we didn't have a lot of time to build sympathy it wasn't as hard-hitting as it could have been. However, though I wasn't exactly enjoying the Brienne chapters, I was certainly pulling for her, so this is probably the first death that had impact.

Prior Predictions

I was hilariously wrong is a bunch of past predictions, which I detail here:

  • I had a prediction that Margery was schemeing against Cersei just as much as Cersei was schemeing against her. It unlikely enough now, based on Margery's actions after being arrested, to call this one wrong. In fact, it looks like she was not even suspicious. Likewise, Margery probably doesn't know about Jaime and Cersei's illegitimacy. (It's possible that Margery was trying to scheme, but that Cersei struck first, but she would have been very, very slick to keep the act up in prison, likely facing treason charges.)
  • I predicted Jaime and Brienne would meet again. Wrong, but again see below. Then I predicted that they'd both meet up with Catelyn. More wrong. Honestly I am surprised at the vehemence of Catelyn's vendetta, but there's no negotiating with her now.
  • I predicted a while back that Gendry would get his own chapters. It seemed as if he'd gotten enough attention in the Arya chapters that he'd get his own (kind of in the same way Theon got some in the first novel) but it wasn't so.

But I was right on for a few:

  • I was right that Aemon would realize Melisandre's folly when he found out about Daenerys, but ended up being wrong (it appears, although it could still happen indirectly) that Samwell would be the one stuck with dealing with it.
  • I correctly deduced that Myrcella was injured and disfigured, not dead, and not just splashed with blood. It was an easy line to miss or downplay. I was wrong about the source of her injury, though.
  • I correctly predicted that Darkstar was the one to try to escape, although that wasn't really that hard a guess. I did not correctly identify him as Myrcella's injurer, though.


  • Brienne. It looked as if she was hung, but there are two possible reasons to belive that she might continue. First, the very last thing we read about her is that she shouted out a word, supposedly while being strangled by the rope. Could mean that something happened at that instant, but of course we have no idea what. Second reason, even if she did die, there's a man known to be able to resurrect people, who is frustrated with the direction the outlaws are going. So, is Brienne dead (and will she stay dead) or not?
    • I predict she is dead for good, if for no other reason than because I heard Martin likes to kill people you are pulling for and this would be the first big one. Her final word that she shouted out (let's assume that it was some kind of last wind) was probably either Jaime or Renly. Which seems too obvious, but I can't think of a better one.
  • Cersei, it was clear that (like I thought) she wasn't a smart as she thought she was, yet I don't expect her to go down easily. Jaime abandoned her, in fact everyone but Qyburn seems to have. Who does she have left? Taena is not going to be of much use. Littlefinger wouldn't help her (and probably wouldn't have anyway, but definitely won't now given his plans with Sansa). She probably will not be able to finangle her way out of this with a trial by champion (and would anyone champion her anyway?), so she is likely to have to destabilize things. She'll do it, too. Somehow. Probably by consorting with outsiders. She's pretty much down to the Freys on her own side.
  • Arya showed her true Stark colors by stupidly drinking the warm milk, and now she's blind. My gut feeling is that it's not permanent and wouldn't be surprised if it were an exercise deliberately done to clue her onto her own stupidity. But my guess it's a lesson in living in the dark, or a way to keep her from killing before she's ready.
  • Will this gambit that Littlefinger has with Sansa work, and what does he get out of it? Tyrion is still alive, complicating things, but their marriage is still eligible to be annulled. It seems too tidy to work out correctly, so I'll predict (for the lack of a better idea) that this Heir dude she's engaged to offs himself before marrying Sanda and somehow war comes to the Vale.
  • No clue what Jaime's going to do. I'll predict that he will come into some drama with the outlaws again.
  • We've been told that Davos was killed by someone (White Harbors, I think?) kissing up , but we have no proof. Knowing now that Martin wrote the fourth and fifth novels more or less simultaneously, it's reasonable to assume he wrote about some of the actual incidents with Davos before writing about characters talking about those incidents, and the casualness of the references definitely suggests the reader is familiar, and also is casual enough that is doesn't seem foreboding. In other words, it's straight writing. Davos was beheaded as advertised.
  • I think the affair in Dragonstone with Sir Loras is going to be a little more subtle than that Waters guy led on. In fact I am not so sure Loras and Waters aren't in together on some kind of conspiracy. Loras seemed eager to take Dragonstone despite him never really being eager to do anything heretofore. That's what I'll predict, but what for? Sieze Dragonstone for Highgarden? Raise (another) rebellion against King's Landing? But with Loras in the Kingsguard that seems unlikely, so I am guessing they were looking for secrets of some sort, and Loras either ran out of patience or realized time was running out.
  • Speaking of Waters, what did he do when Cersei was seized? They said he cut loose, but where? Most of the people in the narrow sea part of the world have two options of any significance to the story: the Wall, or Daenerys. Rumor in the book was that he went to join Stannis. Problem is, I don't know how well Stannis is situated at that time, and given the news of Davos's death (and the news that Melisandre misread the signs and therefore was giving him bad guidance) I will assume not good. Therefore, I'll predict that he sought out Dany.
  • Finally, Victarion. I fully expect him to locate Daenerys and put the moves on her, and Dany... well she's clearly into conquesty types so I think she'll at least be tempted. I think the main significance of this might be to alert Dany to the presence of the dragon horn.
  • I want to make a couple more far-reaching predictions. The Starks and Co. all started in Winterfell. How many of them ever get back? This probably won't come true until Martin completes the final books. Predictions:
    • Catelyn: No
    • Sansa: No
    • Arya: No
    • Rickon: No
    • Bran: Yes
    • Jon Snow: Yes
  • And at risk of being sentimental, I'll predict Tyrion finds Tysha, perhaps in Braavos (i.e., where whores go). I wonder if we've already seen her as one of the people Arya knows?
Tags: gameofthrones, literature, predictions
Last Edited: 4 April 2015, 12:48 AM
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