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My 2016 Ballot

Ok, its 2016, time to reveal my ballot.

The ballot proposititions were actually pretty intelligent this year. Only two of them were retarded (and misleading), and one more was dubious. The rest were actually decent, not that I agreed with all of them, but at least they were well thought out and addressed actual perceived issues.

I didn't pay any attention to any races except for President of the United States (more on that below), so I only voted on the propositions.

My general strategy on propositions to vote no unless I feel like there's a good reason for yes, especially for constitutional amendments (since they can't be overturned by the legislature), and there were a bunch I of them this year where I fell back on them.

  • Prop 51: School bonds, Funding for K-12 Schools and Community College Facilities: NO. Ok, so one of things I'm always skeptical of is when politicians need for funds for schools. I feel like it's a dubious way to bring in more money. They think, correctly it seems, that people will approve it if it's for the children. I voted against all the education propositions. This one was the closest I came to voting Yes. But I'm sure why there needs to be a $9 billon bond release now, rather than smaller bonds as facilities need upgrading, so I fell back to a No vote. (Though I can see the logic of getting approval all at once.)
  • Prop 52: Medical Hospital Fee Program: NO. I almost abstained from this one since I couldn't even follow what it was supposed to be doing. I pieced together what is was and ended up thinking it was pretty useless and maybe slightly worse, so I feel back to No.
  • Prop 53: Revenue Bonds. Amendment. NO. I have mixed feeling about it, actually. $2 billion is a lot of money, and it would seem that having voters weigh in on projects that large might not be a bad idea. I ended up voting No because it is an amendment, and also because it lacked an obvious mechanism to raise the limit as inflation happens.
  • Prop 54: Legislation and Proceedings. Amendment. NO. This is one of two retarded ones, and it's deceptive as well. It requires bills to be published for 72 hours before the state legislature can vote on them. Which pretty much cripples the legislature. It also requires legislative sessions to be televised, which is reasonable enough, but the literature covering the proposition emphasized that part and downplayed the retarded 72 hour requirement. Prop 54 ended up passing, and I feel like the state legislature is going to spend a lot of time finding a way to overturn it.
  • Prop 55: Tax Extension to Fund Education and Healthcare. Amendment. NO. The legislature could have done this, without an amendment, so I fell back to a No vote.
  • Prop 56: Cigaratte Tax to Fund Healthcare, etc. YES. I don't smoke but smoking is addicting, so this statute basically exploits people who smoke, who will pay more money for smokes because they are addicted. I am fine with that. This might also convince a percentage of smokers to stop, as a bonus.
  • Prop 57: Criminal Sentence, Parole, Juvenile Criminal Proceedings. NO. Honestly I thought it went too far, and let some of the non-violent criminals off too easily.
  • Prop 58: English Profieciency. YES. This repealed the stupid requirement that English acquisition classes be taught in English, while keeping other reasonable requirements. Some people evidently thought that if you allow classes to be taught in another language you are eroding English as the national language or some naive thing like that, so they passed a different proposition years ago to prevent that. This reverses that proposition.
  • Prop 59: Political Spending, etc. Advisory. YES. This is the one that advises the state government to purse an US Constitutional Amendment overturning the Citizens United decision. I never liked that decision though (for a slightly different reason than other people disliked it) so definitely worth pursuing.
  • Prop 60: Adult films. Condoms. Health Requirements. NO. In essense just a way to try to get that industry out of California, since no one wants too see porn with condoms. I figured it would just drive that kind of thing underground and make it more dangerous.
  • Prop 61. State Prescription Drug Purchases. Pricing Standards. NO. This is the dubious one. It has good intentions, I believe, but uses a naive socialist approach to the issue that's likely to backfire, as socialist approaches often do when no account is taken of how the price fiat is going to change things (and this prop didn't). Bernie Sanders was vouching for this one, figures.
  • Prop 62. Death Penalty Repeal. YES. This prop repeals the death penalty. I voted for it because as, a practical matter, litigation lasts too long and costs too much, even in the rare cases (and there are some) where the death penalty might be appropriate.
  • Prop 63. Firearms. Ammunitions Sales. YES. I thought this was mostly reasonable restrictions on firearms. There was one thing about limiting magazine size in there that I thought was both silly and slightly concerning as a precedent, but I thought it was not concerning enough for me to vote No.
  • Prop 64. Marijuana Legalization. YES. This was a better proposition than the last time they tried this. I'm not going to lie, I don't use marijuana in any form and don't spend any time around people using it. I don't believe most of the promises they are telling us about legalization, and I definitely don't believe it's as safe as they say it is. If marijuana had not been illegal, most of the people cruelly incarcerated for dealing marijuana would have been selling other drugs, not running responsible dispensaries. Finally, stoner types are some of the most hilarious people to troll. Based on these points, I was tempted to vote no. However, it's clear society has made its decision, and full legalization is merely a matter of time. It's not like society will collapse if another vice is allowed.
  • Prop 65. Carryout bags. Charges. NO, I think. This diverts all funds collected from sale of carry-out grocery bags to environmental causes. I actually left this blank on my sample ballot, and am not even 100% sure I voted for this at all. Right now I'd vote no because I mainly remember thinking that if retailers were able to keep the fees then it might save me a few cents on bread.
  • Prop 66. Death penalty procedures. NO. This eliminates some frivolous litigation in death penalty cases, with the intention of making it possible to carry out some of these people's sentences. I thought this Proposition went way too far, though. Solid no.
  • Prop 67. Ban on single-use plastic bags. YES. This was actually a referendum, the legislature voted to put it on the ballot. Because of this, I didn't fall back to my "No" default (at least not as hard as I would have an initiative proposition), and just voted for what I wanted. It might be a case of environmentalists blowing a relatively minor environmental problem out of proportion, but I'll tell you something, nothing really looks worse in nature than those bags. For that reason alone I voted Yes. Also, reusable bags are way better anyway.

There were some measures as well for Los Angeles County and the City of Santa Monica.

  • LA County Measure A. Tax increase for parks, etc. YES. This was fairly harmless, the tax was something like 1.5 cents per square foot per year. Local taxes are bit more palatable than state taxes, because the state caps the amount localities can tax (although I am not sure there's a cap per square footage). If a tax is earmarked to something good, like maintaining parks, it makes it harder for them to use taxes on stupid things.
  • LA County Measure M. Transportation Improvement Plan, YES. This is probably the happiest I've ever been to have a 0.5 percent raise in sales tax. It's a thorough, well-thought out plan that includes funding for all different phases of transportation (bicycle infrastructure, too, but I never said it was perfect). That's the problem with a lot of these kinds of measures, they forget that people still drive, and focus on a single approach (a railroad usually). This is a practical multi-faceted approach to the transporation in Los Angeles. I almost can't believe a government could come up with something so reasonable. And, once again, that's less money available under the sales tax cap for stupid stuff. This measure had to get a 2/3 supermajority of ballots to pass, and it did.
  • Santa Monica Measures GS and GSH. A 1/2 percent use tax increase. I'm always scratching my head over these. Santa Monica is a very wealthy community and I wonder why they keep needing these nickle-and-dime tax increases. I'm quite sure there's some shady business going on. It's a well-run city so I'm not going crazy over this, but I'm still not voting for it. Also, this will bring back the days of the government guilting me into self-reporting. The main place where use tax is charged is out-of-state online sales. Online retailers are now required to collect this, and most retailers are up to the task. But I doubt most retailers are going to be collecting use tax for cities. Which means now I have to self-report, blah.
  • Santa Monica Measure LV. Require voter approval for developments higher than 32 feet. NO. This has got to be the most retarded ballot measure I've ever seen. I'm somewhat sympathetic to the idea (I think the city is moving a little too fast on redevelopment) but this is draconian beyond all reason. It's also the one of the most heavily contested. I got flyers in the mail every single day for weeks on LV, most of them against. It failed.
  • Santa Monica Community College Measure V. Bonds for College improvements. NO. Again, for the children. As with the high school, it's kind of ridiculous that a wealthy school like Santa Monica College has leaky classrooms, such that they need to sell bonds. Perhaps instead of building a bunch of crap they could have fixed the classrooms instead. You got it backwards, guys, you're supposed to fix classrooms with general funds and sell bonds to build new buildings. But if you do that you don't get all the votes for the children, do you?

Anyway, voters have approved all of the tax increases and bond issues on my ballot, which I think is pretty weak-minded of the electorate. Geez, citizens, I'm not saying all taxes are bad, I voted for a few myself, but push back a little. And don't be duped into thinking the school districts in Santa Monica need to sell bonds to keep classrooms in repair. Come on.

President of the United States

Clinton or Trump, talk about a bad choice. In elections for people, my philosophy is that a person who's got a big advantage in votes will tend to be too secure in their jobs, and so will not be all that afraid of doing shady things. Worse, an official might think they have a "mandate" of some sort, which they argue gives them the freedom to take whatever measures are necessary. This scares me. As such, whenever the outcome of an election is not in doubt, I prefer to use my vote to reduce the margin of victory. No matter who it is, or which party it is, the closer the vote is to 50-50, the better they'll behave.

The presidential election is bit different for two reasons. One, the electoral college. Two, the candidates.

There was no question that Clinton was going to carry California. However, when it comes to behaving, I'd expect the electee to pay attention to national vote counts more than state vote counts, and at national level Clinton only had a few percentage point lead in the polls. In a normal election, based on that small percentage, I would have reverted to my standard practice for elections that are in doubt: to vote for whoever is most likely to defeat the worst candidate.

Unfortunately, that meant Clinton. Trump is probably not going to be the anti-Christ everyone says he's going to be. Proabably. But there is a small chance he is the anti-Christ, and I didn't want to take that risk. So I was hoping--well "hoping" is too strong a word. Let's just say my carefully considered decision was that it was preferrable for Hillary Clinton to win.

But this was not a normal election. Because of the electoral college system, that small percentage lead she had was apparently good enough for a decisive victory. That's what all the pundits were saying. And because I lived in California, which had no chance of not choosing Clinton, my vote was not going to affect the election. Which meant that reverting to my in-doubt strategy was unnecessary. In fact it was actually good: because Clinton, the person who I'd decided was preferable to win, was going to win both California and the electoral college handily, I was free use my vote to reduce her vote totals. So my plan was to vote for Trump.

Day of the election, I walked into the ballot box and had a thought: what if Trump does win? Then I'd be voting to increase his margin of victory, and I don't want that either. I knew that the pundits had all but handed her the election. I knew that "everything had to go right" for Trump to win, and that he had to carry all those tossup states, and even if he had a 50/50 chance of winning those states (and he didn't) then he'd still have only about a 1/30 chance of winning. But I also know Hillary Hate. I know because I have it. I can't even utter the words, "I am rooting for ---", she is so odious. But I am a rationalist, and if I'd been living in a state where the electoral votes were in doubt I would have given her my vote to help defeat Trump, in spite of how I feel about her. But not everyone is like me. A lot of people vote with their guts, and an awful lot of people hate her guts. I decided in that ballot box that Clinton is not the shoe-in everyone was saying she was, and the election was in doubt after all.

I ended up abstaining.

Tags: california, election, voting
Last Edited: 16 November 2016, 9:25 PM
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Food Trucks Suck

There. I said it.

Food trucks are as supposed to be as much a part of LA culture as hot dog stands are for New York. Well, New York wins this one. My experience with food trucks is that they: 1. are slow, 2. serve tiny portions, and 3. aren't any better than a walk-in eatery. Also, lately, they 4. are expensive, and 5. have incredibly long lines because every hipster thinks they're the greatest food in LA.

I suspect a lot of the older food trucks that serve the neighborhoods actually are very good. Certainly they filled an important niche, since they served food in places and at hours that people otherwise couldn't get food. They were operated by people who were from the areas they served, had native knowledge of great ethnic foods, and rapport with their customers.

But now that food trunks have become trendy, the experience has become diluted with mediocrity. I'm not saying that trendiness, by itself, leads to medocrity. But in this case the thing that became trendy was a bad way to serve food. Food trucks have tiny inefficient kitchens. They aren't designed to serve a lot of people quickly, and they aren't designed to serve a wide variety, but that's exactly what people are trying to use them for.

For now, people are impressed enough by the "experience" to not notice they've stood in line for twenty minutes to get a small portion of food that's not very good at a high price. If the food was actually good or unique, as with the old neighborhood food trucks of yore, maybe it'd be worth it, but these days most aren't. So how long will this trend really last?

Tags: food, food_trucks, los_angeles, rant
Last Edited: 25 October 2015, 9:22 PM
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Game of Thrones "Predictions" #8

Ok, so A Feast for Crows ends and it reveals that it and the next novel are divided spatially rather than chronologically. Fair enough.

As Martin started wrapping up the threads it got marginally more interesting. For the first time a character who I was pulling for and who had significant converage was snuffed out (or so it seems; more on that below). This was something I was expecting to happen once or twice per novel, based on the reputation of series, but this is the first time it happened with me. Since I thought Ned, Catelyn, and Robb were all stupid, I wasn't really too attached to them. We had a scare with Bran but I wasn't a fan of him either. Renly's death was disappointing but since we didn't have a lot of time to build sympathy it wasn't as hard-hitting as it could have been. However, though I wasn't exactly enjoying the Brienne chapters, I was certainly pulling for her, so this is probably the first death that had impact.

Prior Predictions

I was hilariously wrong is a bunch of past predictions, which I detail here:

  • I had a prediction that Margery was schemeing against Cersei just as much as Cersei was schemeing against her. It unlikely enough now, based on Margery's actions after being arrested, to call this one wrong. In fact, it looks like she was not even suspicious. Likewise, Margery probably doesn't know about Jaime and Cersei's illegitimacy. (It's possible that Margery was trying to scheme, but that Cersei struck first, but she would have been very, very slick to keep the act up in prison, likely facing treason charges.)
  • I predicted Jaime and Brienne would meet again. Wrong, but again see below. Then I predicted that they'd both meet up with Catelyn. More wrong. Honestly I am surprised at the vehemence of Catelyn's vendetta, but there's no negotiating with her now.
  • I predicted a while back that Gendry would get his own chapters. It seemed as if he'd gotten enough attention in the Arya chapters that he'd get his own (kind of in the same way Theon got some in the first novel) but it wasn't so.

But I was right on for a few:

  • I was right that Aemon would realize Melisandre's folly when he found out about Daenerys, but ended up being wrong (it appears, although it could still happen indirectly) that Samwell would be the one stuck with dealing with it.
  • I correctly deduced that Myrcella was injured and disfigured, not dead, and not just splashed with blood. It was an easy line to miss or downplay. I was wrong about the source of her injury, though.
  • I correctly predicted that Darkstar was the one to try to escape, although that wasn't really that hard a guess. I did not correctly identify him as Myrcella's injurer, though.


  • Brienne. It looked as if she was hung, but there are two possible reasons to belive that she might continue. First, the very last thing we read about her is that she shouted out a word, supposedly while being strangled by the rope. Could mean that something happened at that instant, but of course we have no idea what. Second reason, even if she did die, there's a man known to be able to resurrect people, who is frustrated with the direction the outlaws are going. So, is Brienne dead (and will she stay dead) or not?
    • I predict she is dead for good, if for no other reason than because I heard Martin likes to kill people you are pulling for and this would be the first big one. Her final word that she shouted out (let's assume that it was some kind of last wind) was probably either Jaime or Renly. Which seems too obvious, but I can't think of a better one.
  • Cersei, it was clear that (like I thought) she wasn't a smart as she thought she was, yet I don't expect her to go down easily. Jaime abandoned her, in fact everyone but Qyburn seems to have. Who does she have left? Taena is not going to be of much use. Littlefinger wouldn't help her (and probably wouldn't have anyway, but definitely won't now given his plans with Sansa). She probably will not be able to finangle her way out of this with a trial by champion (and would anyone champion her anyway?), so she is likely to have to destabilize things. She'll do it, too. Somehow. Probably by consorting with outsiders. She's pretty much down to the Freys on her own side.
  • Arya showed her true Stark colors by stupidly drinking the warm milk, and now she's blind. My gut feeling is that it's not permanent and wouldn't be surprised if it were an exercise deliberately done to clue her onto her own stupidity. But my guess it's a lesson in living in the dark, or a way to keep her from killing before she's ready.
  • Will this gambit that Littlefinger has with Sansa work, and what does he get out of it? Tyrion is still alive, complicating things, but their marriage is still eligible to be annulled. It seems too tidy to work out correctly, so I'll predict (for the lack of a better idea) that this Heir dude she's engaged to offs himself before marrying Sanda and somehow war comes to the Vale.
  • No clue what Jaime's going to do. I'll predict that he will come into some drama with the outlaws again.
  • We've been told that Davos was killed by someone (White Harbors, I think?) kissing up , but we have no proof. Knowing now that Martin wrote the fourth and fifth novels more or less simultaneously, it's reasonable to assume he wrote about some of the actual incidents with Davos before writing about characters talking about those incidents, and the casualness of the references definitely suggests the reader is familiar, and also is casual enough that is doesn't seem foreboding. In other words, it's straight writing. Davos was beheaded as advertised.
  • I think the affair in Dragonstone with Sir Loras is going to be a little more subtle than that Waters guy led on. In fact I am not so sure Loras and Waters aren't in together on some kind of conspiracy. Loras seemed eager to take Dragonstone despite him never really being eager to do anything heretofore. That's what I'll predict, but what for? Sieze Dragonstone for Highgarden? Raise (another) rebellion against King's Landing? But with Loras in the Kingsguard that seems unlikely, so I am guessing they were looking for secrets of some sort, and Loras either ran out of patience or realized time was running out.
  • Speaking of Waters, what did he do when Cersei was seized? They said he cut loose, but where? Most of the people in the narrow sea part of the world have two options of any significance to the story: the Wall, or Daenerys. Rumor in the book was that he went to join Stannis. Problem is, I don't know how well Stannis is situated at that time, and given the news of Davos's death (and the news that Melisandre misread the signs and therefore was giving him bad guidance) I will assume not good. Therefore, I'll predict that he sought out Dany.
  • Finally, Victarion. I fully expect him to locate Daenerys and put the moves on her, and Dany... well she's clearly into conquesty types so I think she'll at least be tempted. I think the main significance of this might be to alert Dany to the presence of the dragon horn.
  • I want to make a couple more far-reaching predictions. The Starks and Co. all started in Winterfell. How many of them ever get back? This probably won't come true until Martin completes the final books. Predictions:
    • Catelyn: No
    • Sansa: No
    • Arya: No
    • Rickon: No
    • Bran: Yes
    • Jon Snow: Yes
  • And at risk of being sentimental, I'll predict Tyrion finds Tysha, perhaps in Braavos (i.e., where whores go). I wonder if we've already seen her as one of the people Arya knows?
Tags: gameofthrones, literature, predictions
Last Edited: 4 April 2015, 12:48 AM
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Game of Thrones Predictions #7.1

Jaime's aunt, from a position of knowledge, all but told him that he and Cersei were not Tywin' children. This didn't exactly blindside me; I had always thought there was a connection between the Lannisters and the Targeryens but I kind of felt like it was more of a "they go way back". But now that I am told Jaime and Cersei are illegitimate a bunch of things (dramatic story elements) fall into place, or seem to.

So quick prediction: Jaime and Cersei are the children of Mad King Aegon. Thus making Jaime both a kingslayer and a kinslayer. So much is explained: why Cersei and Jaime were into each other (it's a Targaryen trait), it explains Joffrey's madness (although that could be just be a random result due to incest, but it seems that Targeryens madness goes beyond that and that Joffrey had that particular brand of it). It explains a lot of the drama behind Jaime's appointment to the Kingsguard. Aegon didn't just want to screw over Tywin, he wanted his own son around. It kind of explains Tywin's animosity toward Tyrion and coolness to Jaime: Jaime wasn't his son, and the Imp was, highlighting Tywin's own inadequacy as a sire.

Not regarding who J&C's actual father is, some people have got to know they're illegitimate, if his aunt knew. Who? Jaime obviously had no clue. Cersei doesn't seem to know (I can think of no situation where she belies anything). Predictions:

  • Jon Arryn knew, and that was the truth he actually discovered and was killed for. (In the interests of dramatic irony I'll predict that Arryn had no idea that Joffret and co. weren't Robert's children.)
  • Margery Tyrell knows. That's the trap she's setting. Her grandmother knows.
  • Maester Aemon knew figured it out and it was part of what he was ranting about in the end.

Ironically, this strengthens Tommen's claim (relative to before). This may suggest Margery has it in for Jaime too, who of course has prior claim over Tommen.

Tags: game_of_thrones, literature, predictions
Last Edited: 18 March 2015, 3:49 PM
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Game of Thrones "Predictions" #7

I am about 60% done with A Feast for Crows, and this seems like a good place to stop and make some predictions for the rest of the book. Where are we? (It's kind of hard to say since most of the storylines are going nowhere fast, but we'll try.) Brienne is going toward Riverrun to look for Sandor Clegane with a low-ranking Septon named Meribald, who is one of the few new interesting characters. Jaime is in Harrenhal, about to set off for Riverrun (hmm) with some of Gregor Clegane's old forces. Samwell is in Braavos, trying to dig up stories about dragons for a frail Maester Aemon, and apparently he just met Arya, not knowing who she was. Prince Doran has thwarted Princess Arianne's attempt to kidnap Myrcella. The iron islands have selected Euron as their new King. And Cersei has armed the Church (hoping they will fight Stannis), and starts to believe Ser Loras and Margery have the same incestuous brother-sister relationship that she had with Jaime.


I have to say so far this has been my least favorite novel in the series. I haven't liked most of the changes, or the shift of focus, or the lack of anything happening, and the fact that it's still only something like mid-autumn.

Brienne was a great character in the Jaime chapters, but I find her rather boring in her own chapters. (Perspective matters.) Speaking of Jaime, I don't like how he's turning out. It's certainly the logical progression of his character, from the amoral villainous Kingslayer who killed Ned Stark's entourage, to a human being who is starting to care about things, and the events that happened to him definitely support the change. It's just that I don't like it. And Cersei, whoa. She's not as smart as she thinks she is. Her effectiveness in manipulating people comes from being shamelessly evil, not from being particularly cunning. As such her chapters leave me flat as well (although I suspect that could be intentional, more on that later).

Even the one Arya chapter was a letdown. The Arya chapters had been some of my consistenly favorite chapters, but this religion she found herself in just seems random.

The events in the Iron Islands were somewhat interesting but I really rather would have had Asha's point of view for all of it. I am not a fan of this revloving door POV, and it doesn't seem necessary. Asha was there for most of it, so there's no reason we couldn't have had all Asha chapters.

The Dornish chapters I'd have to say were my favorites of this novel. I loved pretty much all the characters in it: the Sand Snakes, Arianne, Hotah, the Darkstar, and even Arys Oakheart. Especially Prince Doran; it was nice to see someone who is skilled at the "game of thrones" manipulate things for peace for once. I was not a fan of the shifting POV, but at least for the Dornish chapters it seems like a single POV wouldn't have sufficed.

But some of the most interesting aspects of this novel are hearing rumors about things I would rather be reading about. Is the Hound alive or what? I predicted he was but the things attributed to him don't sound like him. At one point a witch was mentioned and clearly referred to Catelyn. Rumors of dragons in the East were common. All things I'd have rather been reading.

And I wouldn't have expected it, but I kind of miss the Bran chapters. I didn't really like Bran, and the chapters were boring, but it did connect the current action to the earliest scenes.

Prior Predictions

I made some hilariously wrong ones:

  1. I predicted both Clegane brothers would pull through. Gregor is certainly dead (we'll credit Qyburn with being corrupt enough to hide the fact that he is a live for some reason, but doesn't seem likley). Sandor is rumored to be alive, but the rumors are unlikley. We'll call it likely wrong in both cases.
  2. I predicted Jon Snow's inheritance of Winterfell would become a thing, but it hasn't so far and gets less likely the more the novel goes on.
  3. I surmised the Pycelle would end up the King's Hand, wrongly. I also surmised that Dorne and the Tyrells (old town), would start to get conquesty. Wrong on both counts, although in Dorne it was only because it was thwarted.

A few other predictions are likely to turn out to be wrong, but I won't call them wrong yet. I predicted Asha would get chapters, plural. It's still not true, and the pattern suggests she might not get any more.

I was right on one prediction: that Brienne would get her own chapters.


  1. The big one: Are Sir Loras and Margery doing it? It's complicated. Certainly there are clues that suggest it retrospect (like when Ser Loras got huffy when Tyrion asked him why he took a Kingsguard post). If it were just that, I would just predict that they are doing it and that Cersei would twist that to her advantage (though it wouldn't work out as well as she'd think). Problem is, I have suspicions that Margery (and probably Ser Loras also) is just as busy manipulating things as Cersei is. Certainly Margery was a protogee of her grandmother the Queen of Thorns. In the face of ambiguity, I'll just go with the bigger surprise: it's an act. Margery wants Cercei to think she and her brother are lovers, and Cersei will work out this elaborate plan, only to fall into Margery's trap.
  2. And then Margery will turn out to be a worse person than Cersei ever was.
  3. Jaime and Brienne will meet again. It almost has to happen, and one way or another it'll have a big consequence. Jaime clearly is attracted to her in spite of himself, but I'm not sure he's ready to jump in yet. My hilarious guess is that Jaime and Brienne will meet up with Catelyn and he will cross over. Or he'll be disbelieved and again have to come to terms with his reputation.
  4. Maester Aemon has some purpose behind asking about the dragons. My guess is that he will connect Dany's actions to Melisandre's and realize something Very Bad is about to happen, probably at the Wall, and he'll die leaving Samwell to make some decisions on how to handle it.
  5. Who told on Princess Arianne? I'll guess Drey since he didn't seemed too surprised, and then tried to convince Arianne to cooperate. But I don't know if it was necessarily someone in the party.
  6. The Darkstar was the one who escaped after Ser Arys foolishly diverted the Hotah's men.
  7. Why did Myrcella have blood streaming through her fingers? I'd guess that she was hit by a stray arrow and (to make things interesting) died of it, but since she was shaking and wailing she would have only died of gangrene later. I'll predict she was hit by a stray arrow and not killed but maybe disfigured? Of course, maybe Arys's blood just splashed on her.
  8. Euron's horn is going to Not Work As Intended. I fully expect it to have some effect on Dany's dragons. Remember, dragons are not slaves, so I don't expect Euron to control them to his will, but he might make them act out. Dany (who, I expect when we next meet her, we will see that she has been ruling very well) will have to be on the move again because of it.

Random Thoughts

I really liked the characters from the Dornish chapters.

I never liked Cersei (either as a person or as a character), and her own chapters aren't making me like her any more.

Seriously, where in the world is Tyrion?

Tags: game_of_thrones, literature, predictions
Last Edited: 13 March 2015, 10:04 PM
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The Dress

So apparently the most controversial thing to ever happen is this dress that no one can agree what color it is, and the illusion is so strong that some narrowminded actually think it's a hoax perpetuated by half the population.

The science behind the illusion isn't really that controversial. Some people's visual systems see it (incorrectly) as a white-colored dress in shadow; other people's visual systems see it (correctly) as a blue dress in the light. It's a well-known effect called color constancy, and you can see a bunch of relatively innocuous examples of it on the Internet.

What's interesting about this illusion (to me) is just how little context is needed to get the illusion for some people, including myself sometimes. There is a narrow strip of overexposed background on the upper-right corner, and that is apparently enough to cause our brains to think the dress is in shadow. So I wondered whether an object in the foreground, say another dress, that was clearly in the light, could thwart the illusion.

People who only see the dress as gold and white: how do you see this image? I did nothing at all to the color of the original dress; I only added the red dress in front of it (and a little drop shadow).

I sometimes see the original image as white and gold, but never this one. For me the dress is always blue and black in this image.

Tags: color_constancy, dress, optical_illusion
Last Edited: 2 March 2015, 12:17 AM
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Game of Thrones "Predictions" #6

I am now finished with A Storm of Swords (which now appears to be poorly named since there was less fighting in this book than the first two). Also unlike the first two books, it ended up with no real cliffhangers (except for a literal one that was resolved before the end), but a did end up with a lot of open questions.

As such, I really have less to go on than in prior books. In those books there was a state of war, so the people involved had immediate motivations, but now with so much left open I don't have a lot of material to work with. What is Tyrion doing now? What would motivate him, and how does he plan to get it? What is Petyr going to do with Sansa? What is Stannis going to do (or, more accurately, how is he)?

Also, when is winter? It barely looks like autumn in a lot of places. One of the few things I knew about Westeros before I started reading was that seasons were unpredictable and lasted for many years, and given that it was this apparently significant fact, I was expecting the books to cover several cycles, not a 3-year transition from late summer to early autumn.

Another thing I keep waiting for is for people I built an emotional connection to die. That was pretty much the other fact I knew about these books. So far, nothing much. Closest thing to it was Renly. Are people talking about Ned and Catelyn and Robb? Or does it not really get going until the next two books?

Prior Predictions

Turned out to be wrong on a few predictions. Here they are.

  1. I predicted (way back) that Sensa would be the first Stark child to die, since I was thinking they would die in the same order as the direwolves. Now, we know Robb is dead (probably permanently since they cut off his head), and ironically, Sansa is the only one most people think is still alive.
  2. I predicted a big mess at Edmund Tully's endagement at the Twins (and in truth, it was kind of hard not to forsee; one of the reasons I think Martin spent time with Robb and Catelyn discussing battle plans against Pike was to throw us off a little, try to make us think those moments mattered), but I didn't anticipate just how shamelessly treaterous the Freys were. As such all the predictions I made were wrong. So Sandor Clegane never delivered Arya and we never had any drama over that (or with Roose Bolton demanding justice for the man she killed). I did predict Robb would never make it out of the Twins alive, but I was expecting something more subtle: a dagger after the ceremony or something.

However, I was right (or partially right) about quite a few.

  1. I predicted that Sansa keeping her meeting with Dontos would let her escape; I was wrong about it being that particular meeting, but was right about her keeping those meetings allowing her eventually to escape.
  2. I predicted that Arya would somehow reunite with Needle. Soon after I made it, I thought, "Oh come on, you have to be kidding, there is no room for that kind of sentimentality in these books." Lo and behold....
  3. I predicted that Shae would break Tyrion's heart at some point. She did a good job faking it.
  4. I predicted that Rosalin would be beautiful. She was a little awkward and weak but definitely looked a lot better than Edmund Tully was expecting.
  5. I predicted that Jaime's reuniting with Cersei would be not

Also, my prediction that the Others would turn out to be the same beings as the Children of the Forest was not proven, but it did get some good evidence: Melisandre called the Others the "Children of the Other". I realized that Melisandre often called the enemy of R'hllor the Other, but I never connected this with the Others. Perhaps because I think of Melisandre as coming from a hot, desert-like climate.


  1. Both Clegane brothers have (or seem to have) septic wounds. We are led to think they will both die. Which is why I don't think neither one will. I positively hope Gregor dies since he's not that interesting a character. But the case with Sandor seems almost too contrived for him to die there. I am not even sure that he was a ailing as he let on.
  2. The one person with a clear motivation is Daenerys. I am prediciting she will do as she intends (remain queen in Meereen and maybe even expand), but something will happen at some point to interrupt it, and I'm guessing it's not something good (from her persepective). She'll see an opportunity or something and go off to seek her throne in Westeros. Perhaps it has already happened but she doesn't know it yet.
  3. Jon Snow is technically the Lord of Winterfell right now, with or without Stannis's offer, since Robb disinherited his siblings before he died. As far as I can make out, the end of the novel is maybe two months or so after the massacre at the Freys, so it might not have been well-publicized heretofore. Maybe the maesters have to get together and verify it or something. But the news will hit fairly soon and it'll cause some trouble. (My first guess would be with Petyr since he is probably thinking Tyrion will be killed and he'll marry Sansa and inherit Winterfell through here. Also what if Bran shows up, who would have been the Lord of Winterfell if not for being disinherited?)
  4. Hard to guess what Tyrion might do. My guess at his only motivation is to get revenge on Cersei, and I have no other idea. He wanted Casterly Rock but apart from getting rid of Cersei (who I believe has inherited it since Jaime is ineligible) I doubt he would be rash enough to think he could get it right away. As far as I know, the only person in the world he thinks he is friends with is none other than Jon Snow, so that is who I am guessing he'll be seeking out. He might even take the black.... Another thought: he could seek out Daenerys and ally himself with the Targaryens. However, I doubt he'd have much of a read on how powerful she had grown.
  5. Arya is headed for Braavos. Her main motivation seems to be killing lots of people, so I'm guessing she is heading off to be a made a warrior princess. Maybe a witch like Melisandre, or a warrior like Brienne.
  6. Since Jaime sent Brienne off, it seems like she might start getting her own chapters. There is no one to follow her travels, unless she suddenly appears in a Sansa chapter. If she doesn't get her own chapters, that's what I'm guessing happens.
  7. The situation at King's Landing is a mess. Tommen is king, but with Tywin gone who will step up to be leader? Seems like it'll be a mess. My early guess is that Pycelle will be the King's Hand, but I don't know how stable that situation will be. It seems as if the Tyrells (Ser Loras's clan) will get a little conquesty, maybe the Dornish peoples as well.


I can't really make a prediction about Petyr and Sansa. One thing that surprised me is how deftly Petyr kidnapped Sansa, seemingly without Varys noticing it. I am not so sure I belive Varys has birds listening everywhere like everyone thinks he does, but I find it hard to believe that Varys wouldn't have noticed. This means that either Varys is in on it, or that Petyr is a lot more formidable than he has looked. I'd guess the latter, given the cool way he dealt with the situation with Lady Arryn. Now he has the Vale (since he's likely to be regent) and has his eyes on Winterfell (via a planned marriage to Sansa) but what is he going to do if he finds that Tyrion is alive, and that Robb disinherited Sansa? Also, it seems he will soon have Brienne to deal with.

Bran, I mean seriously, what the hell is he doing. For several months he's been traveling to meet some seer in the middle of nowhere who's probably going to tell him to man up and go be Lord of Winterfell already.

Tags: game_of_thrones, literature, predictions
Last Edited: 23 February 2015, 1:15 AM
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Game of Thrones "Predictions" #5

I'm about halfway through A Storm of Swords and I have to say it is a big improvement, easily my favorite of the three books so far. (The Tyrion chapters were pretty much the only good thing from A Clash of Kings.) Anyway, I have more hilarious "predictions" coming.

Right now here is where it stands. Arya has been captured by Sandor Clegane and he's revealed to her that he's not taking her to King's Landing but to the Twins to return her to her mother. Robb and Catelyn are heading toward the Twins in an endless downpour, and Robb has laid out plans to attack the ironmen. Sansa is married to Tyrion but they still haven't done it. Daenerys has captured Yunkai relatively peacefully. Jon has escaped the wildlings and rode on ahead to Castle Black to warn them. Samwell has encountered a mysterious Night's Watchman. Jaime has been released by Roose Bolton, then returned to rescue Brienne from the Bloody Mummers. Davos has been made Stannis's Hand.

Prior Predicions

A couple of my predicitons did turn out to be hilariously wrong.

  1. I predicted that the Melisandre's shadow child was Patches, mainly trying to think of the most unlikely person possible. Based on Melisandre's words as she was trying to seduce Davos, clearly the child was Lord Stannis.
  2. I predicted Jon Snow's mother was a Targaryen, thinking it was the only person Ned would want to cover up so bad. Now we've been told it's a servant called Wylla in the house of Dayne, and that Ned apparently made a pretext of loving Ashara Dayne to get to Wylla, and that Ashara killed herself over it. Ouch, no wonder he kept it secret.

But I was right on a couple:

  1. Correctly predicted who was alive and dead at the end of the second book.
  2. Correctly predicted a stalemate between Lannisters and Starks as the Starks went to deal with the ironmen.


  1. A word on religion. I doubt it'll ever be resolved explicitly, but it appers that the gods are taking an active role in the events of Westeros. The problem is, we don't know if it's the gods, or mere magic, or what. For instance, it's not said if the pyromancers are invoking any gods to do their alchemy, but then they imply that the presense of dragons in the world might be helping their alchemical skills to be more efficient implying that it's more than just alchemy.

    • The God of Light, R'hllor, seems to be the most powerful god in the story. If it was only Melisandre doing it, I'd guess that she is just a powerful sorceress, and that R'hllor wasn't real. But Lord Beric and Thoros also follow R'hllor and they seem to get revelations the same way at least, and Lord Beric survives assassination attempts.
    • However, R'hllor is not all-powerful, and even Thoros admits that in some locations the old nameless gods are stronger. The old gods have been credited with enough that I'm inclined to think they exist also. The direwolves, answering Samwise Tully's prayer, and the revelations of the old woman on High Heart. However, none of these are certain.
    • I have yet to see anything that suggests the new gods (Mother, Father, Crone, etc.) are real.
    • The gods in the east are implied to have some kind of power, and some knowledge of magic (such as through the maegi) is there, but nothing is certain. Technically, R'hllor is an Eastern god (Melisandre is from Asshai) but I'm not counting him.

    The thing that's not clear at all is whether different god are more or less powerful, or if people are more or less skilled at channeling the gods.

    My prediction is that the latter is true: the gods may or may not have varying powers, but the primary determination is the skills of the person in channeling that power. Melisandre is powerful witch who is better than anyone at channeling, even if R'hllor himself is a relatively weak god.

    One wrinkle to this is that the influence of the gods (or general metaphysical abstractions, which may be the same thing) reflects their global popularity. The pyromancers became more powerful ostensibly because dragons had been born a continent away, which made Fire a more influential "God" all over the world. Likewise, Thoros was self-admitted bad priest, until one day he was suddenly able to resurrect Lord Beric. Could it be because Melisandre was gaining power with R'hllor at the same time, or is it also connected to the dragons, or both?

  2. The meeting at the Twins is probably going to turn into a royal mess.

    • I am suspicious of the Frey's motives.
    • Arya's headed there, so is Roose Bolton. When Sandor Clegane delivers her, Roose will recognize her as the person who stole three horses and killed a sentry (which, if you think about it, makes Arya a grand hypocrite when it comes to Clegane). Robb and Catelyn will not hear anything of having Arya be punished fir this. This will likely honk of Roose and they will pull out of the northern alliance.
    • Roose's delivery of Jaime to the Lannisters will likely honk off others in the North as well. (Although it's not certain he'd want to admit this, but he might after he gets slighted.)
    • Robb will probably do something stupid like turn down Sandor's service and just pay him gold, probably a lot more than he has to as well.
    • I'm guessing Robb doesn't leave the Twins alive.
    • And probably would have if Roose hadn't left.
    • Which means that Jon Snow becomes Lord of Winterfell, even though all of Robb's brothers and sisters are still alive. Disinheriting Sansa might have been a good idea, but given that Arya's status was still uncertain, he shouldn't have disinherited her.
    • So now there's a succession crisis over Winterfell, and the Pykes still attacking.
  3. Among other reasons why I think Robb is doomed is the curse the Stannis placed on them. He burned three leeches, one for each usurper: Balon, Joffrey, and Robb. Balon already died under strange circumstances. So I predict that Robb does as well. On the bright side, this also means Joffrey dies.

    I'm a little skeptical of this, though, because I think the ability to cast curses on people over great distances like this would upset the balance in a story like this. Another reason: Robb's old gods have some power and might be able to protect him from the curse.

  4. Robb thinks that there will be succession crisis in Pyke now that Balon has died, but remember this is based on information from the idiot Theon Greyjoy. Based on the text it sounds as if Asha might not actually have any rivals as heir, so the North attack might take them in at a vulnerable moment like they thought.

  5. Rosalin will turn out to be beautiful. The story is clearly implying that Edmund Tully and everyone else expects her to be a ugly hose beast, which is why I'm predicting she won't be.

  6. Gendry will start to get his own chapters. This will allow us to continue to follow Lord Beric and Thoros and the outlaws.

  7. Sansa still has hope in escaping. We are told that her marriage to Tyrion is still annullable because they hadn't had relations, so of course we are going yo think she's going to get with Dantos again and escape as they originally planned. Which is why I think it won't happen that way. I'd guess things are going according to plan when she gets raped (or sillier, she loses her mind and has sex with someone like Ser Loras), thus can no longer prove her maidenhood and so can't get an annulment).

  8. The person that rescused Samwell? Benjen Stark. We are led to believe he shared the fate of Waymar Royce and others who became wights, but they never found out what happened to him.

  9. Jaime is clearly enamored with Brienne in spite of himself. (We know Jaime would think nothing to treaterously kill his enemies, so when he leaves her alive despite several opportunities to eliminate her, we know something about her attracts him.) I guess he reunites with Cercei and suddenly finds her lacking in some way. She'll find him lacking in some way, too.

  10. Jaime wouldn't be able to release Sansa, although he had decided to.

  11. Children of the Forest? The Others? Same thing.

Random Thoughts

I had written earlier that the Lannisters were boring because they were a stereotypical evil family. However, I did opine that maybe they were acting the role deliberately, and from the Jaime chapters it is clear that is the case for him at least.

I was very happy to see that the first chapter of this novel was a Jaime chapter, because he seemed like a character with so much potential. He rocketed to be my favorite character when I read these lines: "Jaime had decided that he would return Sansa, and the younger girl as well if she could be found. It was not like to win him back his lost honor, but the notion of keeping faith when they all expected betrayal amused him more than he could say."

Davos is probably the least believable character in the whole series. I find it hard to believe that this timid, honest-to-a-fault man was once a fearless smuggler.

The Daenerys story was so interesting in A Game of Thrones. After she hatched the dragons, I was expecting an exiting story of conquest as her little khal slowly reconquered all of the Dothraki. But she spent all of the second novel and half the third novel running from city to city trying to gain favors, and it got lame and stayed lame. Then she attacked Astapor and it instantly got real interesting again. Took long enough.

I hope Asha gets her own chapters.

Tags: game_of_thrones, literature, predictions
Last Edited: 29 November 2014, 8:51 AM
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Game of Thrones "Predictions" #4

Warning: This post contains spoilers for the first two novels of A Song of Ice and Fire: A Game of Thrones and A Clash of Kings.

I am done reading the second novel, A Clash of Kings. My first two sets of "predictions" either have not been resolved, have been way off base, or have been correct. This time, though, I have made some hilariously bad ones.

Assesment of prior predictions

Some of my predictions turned out to be correct. Halfway through the first novel I predicted Theon would turn out to have a significant role, and that he'd be a destabilizing factor to the Starks. Boy was I right, though I expected his distabilizing influence to be from within.

Then I hilariously predicted that he might recapitulate and help the Starks after his cool treatment from his own family. That doesn't seem like it'll happen now, though, even if he's still alive. In retrospect that's kind of a dumb prediction. Theon was clearly going to be one of those people who, when shunned by his family, would actually try harder.

I predicted that it would turn out that the Small Council was on Ned's side early on but he lost them. Doesn't appear to be so, though. Only one that might have been true for is Varys.

For awhile there I was afraid that my prediction that Bran would survive to the end was (nearly immediately) wrong, but I guess not. So that prediction still stands.

I definitely predicted the standoff between Stannis and Renly would be very unexpected (and perhaps out of nowhere), and I was totally right. I did not correctly predict what would happen, but that was kind of tangential to my main prediction and I only threw it out there.

I predicted that Sansa would find escape the very night she successfully lied to Tyrion, thinking it a waste for this to be just a character milestone for Sansa, but I guess it was. (It's kind of amusing that she and Ser Dontos have been able to keep their meetings a secret under Lannister eyes for so long.)

I correctly predicted Anya's second victim, but was wrong about the identity and circumstance of #3 (which turned out to be more like victims 3-10). Although victim #11, by her own hand, was the same circumstance as I predicted for #3.


  1. The fate of several characters is unanswered.
    • Ser Davos: Alive. Metareasoning here: he needs more page time to earn more sympathy.
    • Jaime Lannister: Alive. Catelyn cut out his tongue I'm guessing.
    • Lord Stannis: Alive. On one hand, dying is too convenient an excuse to explain his disappearance. On the other, I think the story would be more interesting with him gone. His heir is now his daughter, and his wife and Melisandre would control her. I'll go with A, and predict that Melisandre (or, more likely, her shadow child) is responsible for whisking him away.
    • Theon Greyjoy: Dead. (It's heavily implied, but Martin leaves just enough room open for him to survive.)
  2. Who is the shadow child? Davos said he knew who it was. I highly doubt it was Lord Stannis (although the story kind of implied it is him based on his dream when Lord Renly was being killed). It had to be someone Davos knows, and is almost certainly someone we know. That leaves only a few people. The one I am guessing is... Patches. The fool. I'll go so far as to predict that Patches's original wit was stolen by Melisandre to serve as the shadow child.
  3. So now the Lannisters control all the lands South of God's eye. What happens next? I kind of doubt they'll team up with Pike and the Greyjoys. A lot of Stannis's army will doubtless bend the knee to Joffrey, but I still expect them to keep busy keeping down some insurrection. Robb is going to have to pay more attention to the North. So Lannisters versus Starks will stagnate for awhile, while Robb deals with the Ironmen.
  4. Theon's dream where Robb and Grey Wind were stabbed? I don't believe it. Theon has shown no signs of prescient dreams. Robb might be killed yet (and I do kind of expect it sooner or later) but it's not anything to do with Theon's dream.
  5. The fact that everyone was told Bran and Rickon were killed is going to cause trouble later on.

New characters I like and disklike

Characters I thought were interesting

  1. Theon Greyjoy, if only for the sheer trainwreck factor. Similar to Viserys Targaryen, in a way.
  2. Asha Greyjoy, for being awesome.
  3. Quorin Halfhand. Too bad he bit it.

Characters I thought were not interesting

  1. Ser Davos: Kind of a flat character. Martin didn't really build enough sympathy for him.
  2. Melisandre. So far she's just a stereotypical evil witch, though in fairness, she didn't have a lot of coverage.

Random Thoughts

Of the characters who died so far, Renly Baratheon was the one I was closest to being attached to. He would have made a great king, in spite of his flaws.

I had thought the Starks were stupid. No, Theon Greyjoy is stupid. He did not do a single thing in the whole novel that wasn't completely off-the-wall brain-dead. He never planned for or even considered anything beyond step one (and sometimes he didn't even consider that, as when he declined to return with Asha), and every single thing he did, or didn't do, had negative repurcussions later on. Also he completely disregarded everyone's very explicit statements of his standing in the family. (And it's not like he was oblivious to it like Viserys Targaryen was; Theon knew and understood his standing in the family, but then simply acted like it didn't apply to him.)

Whenever the Lannisters engage in brutality, there is a reason for it. Even Joffrey has a degree of insane logic to his saddistic tendencies. For Theon, whether he was being brutal or magnanimous, the ony rationale behind his decision seems to be how can he do the most utterly stupid thing possible.

Arya's moral crossover is slightly, but not wholly, unexpected. After watching the Mountain and Tickler for so long, and after indirectly killing through a hitman, why wouldn't she pick up those same behaviors? Still, everything she does shows that she's smarter than everyone else in her family. She actually learns from her mistakes.

Tags: game_of_thrones, literature, predictions
Last Edited: 7 October 2014, 12:18 AM
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Game of Thrones "Predictions" #3

Warning: This post contains spoilers for the first two novels of A Song of Ice and Fire: A Game of Thrones and A Clash of Kings.

Continuing on my series of "predictions" on A Song of Ice and Fire, I am now about halfway complete with the second novel, A Clash of Kings. I stopped readong right before as Stannis and Renly Baratheon seem ready to attack one another: they've already had their face-to-face mediated hopelessly by Catelyn Stark, and basically just agreed to fight. Arya had just used her hitman to kill her first saddistic Lannister. Tyrion has arrested Pycelle and kicked him off the Small Council, and then rescued Sensa from a beating (and at the very end Sansa seems to have one-upped him in the lying). Jon Snow is on the way to confront Mance Rayder. That's where I am.

Assessment of Prior Predicions

Well, my predictions after the first novel were way off base because I was expecting a time jump, for a few reasons.

  1. Peace seemed likely because of the relative positions of the armies. (I didn't anticipate that they would dig in and start petty warfare for several months, nor that Renly would take his sweet old time advancing on King's Landing.)
  2. Based on book descriptions, I was expecting several changes of season throughout the series, but since the seasons are so long a flash forward seemed like a good way to advance in time to get those seasons in. (Also, I didn't think the series was ready for winter yet, and thought it might bypass a short one.)
  3. Not only is peace boring, but so is stalemate. I figured Martin would want to get back to the exciting part, war, quickly and so time jump ahead quickly to the point it would erupt again. (Obviously, Martin disagreed.)

As a result of this incorrect assumption, many of my predictions were about the aftermath, rather than the immediate continuance of action. I incorrectly predicted that peace would be made (though under terms that were similar to but weaker than the actual Stark proposal), and that Renly would back off as a result and bide his time in Highgarden. I did correctly predict that a bunch of kings would spring up, but believed that the Lannisters would have instead consolidated and bided their time on that (and still think that's what they should have done).

I predicted that Arya would be conscripted into Night's Watch by Yoren, but I guess Yoren was actually trying to rescue her on the pretense of conscripting her. Still think she might end up there.


Heretofore, I've been pretty wary of doing what I call metapredicting. Regular predicting would be to consider the personalities of the characters and the situations they're in, and try to predict what those characters would do. Metapredicting would be to think about what the author would do, and takes into account things like forwshadowing and surprise. But everything I heard about Game of Thrones led me to believe that Martin liked to build sympathy for characters only to kill them off, and that I therefore shouldn't trust him since he doesn't follow typical narrative structure. However, now that I've read more, I think I have enough familiarity to attempt a little metapredicting. In fact, I am even audacious enough to predict that one character will survive to the very end. But I am still wary.

  1. Bran is already known to have prescient dreams: his crow dream right before he awoke had information he couldn't have known in it. I suspect he'll reluctantly give up his dreams of knighthood and take up as a maester (or even a maegi).

  2. Based on the fact that authors like to "bookend" their works (have it begin and end the same way). Therefore, I predict that the very last chapter in the series will be entitled "Bran" where he will die at old age, probably as King of all Westeros. Note that this is a prediction, not a "prediction". (Though, of course, Bran might already be dead.)

  3. Renly versus Stannis I somehow have this feeling won't go at all the way we expect. I think it's been foreshadowed that the God of Light will actually bring great power to Stannis's small army (think of how Melisandre somehow was immune to the poison). Also, note that Davos is now a character with his own chapters; it'd be kind of a waste to do that for just two or three chapters. (Though he doesn't necessarily have to remain with Stannis.) With all the focus on Stannis in the narrative, it just seems unlikely that in the same narrative Renly would simply destroy Stannis's entire forces, then shrug his shoulders and move on to King's Landing. Factor in Renly's overconfidence and Davos's underconfidece, and we are definitely being conditioned to expect a "surprise" upset by Stannis that cripples Renly and allows the Lannisters to keep King's Landing and focus more effort on the Northerners.

    Which is exactly why I don't think it'll happen. Something completely unexpected, perhaps completely out of nowhere, will interfere with this battle and put both Renly and Stannis somewhere no one expected. I don't know what it'd be, but to throw out a guess, I'd say Stannis is not showing his whole forces. Ok, he actually is, but Melisandre has her own forces, followers of the God of Light, backing them up, that no one else has the slightest idea existed. Stannis will put up a good enough fight that Renly has to recall his other forces to break the siege. Then, decimated, Melisandre's forces will arrive to siege him.

  4. Sansa, as a I said, had a suprising one up on Tyrion and I hate to think it would go to waste. Sansa disappearing would certainly add an intriguing element to the story to parallel with Arya's disappearance. So, warily, I predict that Sansa's escape to the godswood that night will be crucially timed to allow her escape--then again it could also be crucially timed to allow something bad to happen as well.

  5. Arya. Wouldn't it be cool if she took down the Mountain? Don't think she will, though. I'd guess #2 is Tickler or Weese, and #3 is someone relatively nice like Shitmouth who she regrettably has to kill to allow her escape. She knows that Robb is (or was) in Riverrun, so she escapes somehow and travels there to reunite with her family. Somehow she'll reunite with Needle.

  6. Sansa has hope of escaping, Arya has fear of being recaptured, and Tyrion has sent experts to rescue Jaime Lannister. Two things would be interesting: a hostage rebalance in either side's favor, or a loss of all hostages (leaving no barrier to resume the war). I'd say most interesting would be to find the Lannisters without any hostages (Arya and Sansa both rejoin the Starks), but most shocking would be to find the Starks without any (Lannisters free Jaime then capture or kill Arya or Sansa). Tyrion's been on a roll lately and he's due for a fall, so I'll guess the Starks discover the Lannister's rescue team and send them back in boxes with the next peace offer, while rejoining Arya at least.

  7. What is that chain for? The only thing I can think of would be to hoist something. Is Tyrion going to deploy the wildfire from catapults deployed down the road, then drag the device back toward city walls as they manage to advance? Only think I can think of.

  8. With Robb marching more toward Casterly Rock, I am thinking the Iron Islands will open a painful second front on the North. However, Theon, who I originally thought would destabilize the Starks, might actually help them in the end due to the cool treatment from his family.

  9. Shae is faking it and will break Tyrion's heart (probably right before he is cruelly killed).

  10. Still too early for dragons and Others to make a major impact.

Random Thoughts

Not too much this time. Starks are still good warriors but stupid, Lannisters are smart but overly inflexible and have a major thorn in their side (Joffrey).

Renly Baratheon I declared very capable and think his easygoing style is actually very effective when combined with a decisive and serious personality underneath, which I think he has. Yet he has a weird blindness which I think might be his fatal flaw. For instance, he sees the obvious truth that his brother came to the Iron Throne in reality through power and not by inheriting it, but somehow misses that this doesn't impress people.

Tags: game_of_thrones, literature, predictions
Last Edited: 29 September 2014, 12:08 PM
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